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2020-02-21: Epidemic Mitigation Time Forecast (Covid-19)

National Epidemic Time Series

Date

Total Conf.

Crnt Conf.

Crnt Susp.

Crnt Sevr.

Total Death.

Total Cured

Total Conf.+Susp.

Incrs Conf.

Incrs Susp.

Incrs Susp.+Conf.

Ratio D/C

Obs.

02-29

79824

35329

851

7365

2870

41625

80675

573

132

705

3.60

51856

02-28

79251

37414

1418

7664

2835

39002

80669

427

248

675

3.58

58233

02-27

78824

39919

2308

7952

2788

36117

81132

327

452

779

3.54

65225

02-26

78497

43258

2358

8346

2744

32495

80855

433

508

941

3.50

71572

02-25

78064

45604

2491

8752

2715

29745

80555

406

439

845

3.48

79108

02-24

77658

47672

2824

9126

2663

27323

80482

508

530

1038

3.43

87902

02-23

77150

49824

3434

9915

2592

24734

80584

409

620

1029

3.36

97481

02-22

76936

51606

4148

10968

2442

22888

81084

648

882

1530

3.17

106089

02-21

76288

53284

5365

11477

2345

20659

81653

397

1361

1758

3.07

113564

02-20

75465

54965

5206

11633

2236

18264

80671

889

1614

2503

2.96

120302

02-19

74576

56303

4922

11864

2118

16155

79498

394

1277

1671

2.84

126363

02-18

74185

57805

5248

11977

2004

14376

79433

1749

1185

2934

2.70

135881

02-17

72436

58016

6242

11741

1868

12552

78678

1886

1432

3318

2.58

141552

02-16

70548

57934

7264

10644

1770

10844

77812

2048

1563

3611

2.51

150539

02-15

68500

57416

8228

11272

1665

9419

76728

2009

1918

3927

2.43

158764

02-14

66492

56873

8969

11053

1523

8096

75461

2641

2277

4918

2.29

169039

02-13

63851

55748

10109

10204

1380

6723

73960

5090

2450

7540

2.15

177984

02-12

59804

52526

13435

8030

1367

5911

73239

15152

2807

17959

2.29

181386

02-11

44653

38800

16067

8204

1113

4740

60720

2015

3342

5357

2.49

185037

02-10

42638

37626

21675

7333

1016

3996

64313

2478

3536

6014

2.38

187728

02-09

40171

35982

23589

6484

908

3281

63760

3062

4008

7070

2.26

187518

02-08

37198

33738

28942

6188

811

2649

66140

2656

3916

6572

2.18

188183

02-07

34546

31774

27657

6101

722

2050

62203

3399

4214

7613

2.09

189660

02-06

31161

28985

26359

4821

636

1540

57520

3143

4833

7976

2.04

186045

02-05

28018

NA

24702

3859

563

1153

52720

3694

5328

9022

2.01

186354

02-04

24324

NA

23260

3219

490

892

47584

3887

3971

7858

2.01

185555

02-03

20438

NA

23214

2788

425

632

43652

3235

5072

8307

2.08

171329

02-02

17205

NA

21558

2296

361

475

38763

2829

5173

8002

2.10

152700

02-01

14380

NA

19544

2110

304

328

33924

2590

4562

7152

2.11

137594

01-31

11791

NA

17988

1795

259

243

29779

2102

5019

7121

2.20

118478

01-30

9692

NA

15238

1527

213

171

24930

1982

4812

6794

2.20

102427

01-29

7711

NA

12167

1370

170

124

19878

1737

4148

5885

2.20

81947

01-28

5974

NA

9239

1239

132

103

15213

1459

3248

4707

2.21

59990

01-27

4515

NA

6973

976

106

60

11488

1771

2077

3848

2.35

44132

01-26

2744

NA

5794

461

80

51

8538

769

3806

4575

2.92

30453

01-25

1975

NA

2684

324

56

49

4659

688

1309

1997

2.84

21556

01-24

1287

NA

1965

237

41

38

3252

444

1118

1562

3.19

13967

01-23

830

NA

1072

177

25

34

1902

259

680

939

3.01

8420

01-22

571

NA

393

95

17

49

964

131

257

388

2.98

4928

01-21

440

NA

37

102

9

28

477

149

26

175

2.05

1394

01-20

291

NA

54

NA

6

25

345

77

27

104

2.06

922

2020-02-21 Epidemic forecast by province

[Area]

[Area_cn]

[Epidemic Mitigation Time]

[2020-03-01 Prdctd daily incrs conf.]

[2020-03-01 Prdctd conf. in total]

Hubei

湖北

03-02

181

65740

Hebei

河北

02-22

0

315

Hong Kong

香港

02-29

0

54

Chongqing

重庆

02-15

0

554

Yunnan

云南

02-12

0

165

Shanxi

山西

02-15

0

131

Gansu

甘肃

02-13

0

91

Henan

河南

02-18

0

1250

Xinjiang

新疆

02-25

0

78

Tianjin

天津

02-21

0

132

Jiangsu

江苏

02-19

0

634

Neimenggu

内蒙古

02-18

0

73

Fujian

福建

02-13

0

289

Guangdong

广东

02-16

0

1313

Zhejiang

浙江

02-13

0

1162

Hunan

湖南

02-17

0

1010

Shandong

山东

02-18

0

552

Hainan

海南

02-19

0

170

Anhui

安徽

02-20

0

990

Sichuan

四川

02-18

0

502

Shaanxi

陕西

02-14

0

240

Heilongjiang

黑龙江

02-24

0

466

Guangxi

广西

02-17

0

243

Guizhou

贵州

02-24

0

149

Jilin

吉林

02-20

0

89

Liaoning

辽宁

02-13

0

121

Shanghai

上海

02-14

0

329

Jiangxi

江西

02-19

0

935

Ningxia

宁夏

02-22

0

71

Taiwan

台湾

02-17

0

17

Macau

澳门

01-30

0

9

Beijing

北京

02-16

0

391

Qinghai

青海

02-09

0

18

Hubei:

Hebei:

Hong Kong:

Chongqing:

Yunnan:

Shanxi:

Gansu:

Henan:

Xinjiang:

Tianjin:

Jiangsu:

Neimenggu:

Fujian:

Guangdong:

Zhejiang:

Hunan:

Shandong:

Hainan:

Anhui:

Sichuan:

Shaanxi:

Heilongjiang:

Guangxi:

Guizhou:

Jilin:

Liaoning:

Shanghai:

Jiangxi:

Ningxia:

Taiwan:

Macau:

Beijing:

Qinghai:

Xizang:

This model prediction is provided by Dr. Yi Zou.