Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the country
Due to the adding of clinical diagnosis to confirm cases, since February 13, our model will use the “confirmed + suspected” cases instead of the original “confirmed” cases as our variables. Data from February 09, 10 and 11 were removed from the model because cases were underreported and then included all at once on February 12.
National Epidemic Time Series
Date | Total Conf. | Crnt Conf. | Crnt Susp. | Crnt Sevr. | Total Death. | Total Cured | Total Conf.+Susp. | Incrs Conf. | Incrs Susp. | Incrs Susp.+Conf. | Ratio D/C | Obs. |
02-29 | 79824 | 35329 | 851 | 7365 | 2870 | 41625 | 80675 | 573 | 132 | 705 | 3.60 | 51856 |
02-28 | 79251 | 37414 | 1418 | 7664 | 2835 | 39002 | 80669 | 427 | 248 | 675 | 3.58 | 58233 |
02-27 | 78824 | 39919 | 2308 | 7952 | 2788 | 36117 | 81132 | 327 | 452 | 779 | 3.54 | 65225 |
02-26 | 78497 | 43258 | 2358 | 8346 | 2744 | 32495 | 80855 | 433 | 508 | 941 | 3.50 | 71572 |
02-25 | 78064 | 45604 | 2491 | 8752 | 2715 | 29745 | 80555 | 406 | 439 | 845 | 3.48 | 79108 |
02-24 | 77658 | 47672 | 2824 | 9126 | 2663 | 27323 | 80482 | 508 | 530 | 1038 | 3.43 | 87902 |
02-23 | 77150 | 49824 | 3434 | 9915 | 2592 | 24734 | 80584 | 409 | 620 | 1029 | 3.36 | 97481 |
02-22 | 76936 | 51606 | 4148 | 10968 | 2442 | 22888 | 81084 | 648 | 882 | 1530 | 3.17 | 106089 |
02-21 | 76288 | 53284 | 5365 | 11477 | 2345 | 20659 | 81653 | 397 | 1361 | 1758 | 3.07 | 113564 |
02-20 | 75465 | 54965 | 5206 | 11633 | 2236 | 18264 | 80671 | 889 | 1614 | 2503 | 2.96 | 120302 |
02-19 | 74576 | 56303 | 4922 | 11864 | 2118 | 16155 | 79498 | 394 | 1277 | 1671 | 2.84 | 126363 |
02-18 | 74185 | 57805 | 5248 | 11977 | 2004 | 14376 | 79433 | 1749 | 1185 | 2934 | 2.70 | 135881 |
02-17 | 72436 | 58016 | 6242 | 11741 | 1868 | 12552 | 78678 | 1886 | 1432 | 3318 | 2.58 | 141552 |
02-16 | 70548 | 57934 | 7264 | 10644 | 1770 | 10844 | 77812 | 2048 | 1563 | 3611 | 2.51 | 150539 |
02-15 | 68500 | 57416 | 8228 | 11272 | 1665 | 9419 | 76728 | 2009 | 1918 | 3927 | 2.43 | 158764 |
02-14 | 66492 | 56873 | 8969 | 11053 | 1523 | 8096 | 75461 | 2641 | 2277 | 4918 | 2.29 | 169039 |
02-13 | 63851 | 55748 | 10109 | 10204 | 1380 | 6723 | 73960 | 5090 | 2450 | 7540 | 2.15 | 177984 |
02-12 | 59804 | 52526 | 13435 | 8030 | 1367 | 5911 | 73239 | 15152 | 2807 | 17959 | 2.29 | 181386 |
02-11 | 44653 | 38800 | 16067 | 8204 | 1113 | 4740 | 60720 | 2015 | 3342 | 5357 | 2.49 | 185037 |
02-10 | 42638 | 37626 | 21675 | 7333 | 1016 | 3996 | 64313 | 2478 | 3536 | 6014 | 2.38 | 187728 |
02-09 | 40171 | 35982 | 23589 | 6484 | 908 | 3281 | 63760 | 3062 | 4008 | 7070 | 2.26 | 187518 |
02-08 | 37198 | 33738 | 28942 | 6188 | 811 | 2649 | 66140 | 2656 | 3916 | 6572 | 2.18 | 188183 |
02-07 | 34546 | 31774 | 27657 | 6101 | 722 | 2050 | 62203 | 3399 | 4214 | 7613 | 2.09 | 189660 |
02-06 | 31161 | 28985 | 26359 | 4821 | 636 | 1540 | 57520 | 3143 | 4833 | 7976 | 2.04 | 186045 |
02-05 | 28018 | NA | 24702 | 3859 | 563 | 1153 | 52720 | 3694 | 5328 | 9022 | 2.01 | 186354 |
02-04 | 24324 | NA | 23260 | 3219 | 490 | 892 | 47584 | 3887 | 3971 | 7858 | 2.01 | 185555 |
02-03 | 20438 | NA | 23214 | 2788 | 425 | 632 | 43652 | 3235 | 5072 | 8307 | 2.08 | 171329 |
02-02 | 17205 | NA | 21558 | 2296 | 361 | 475 | 38763 | 2829 | 5173 | 8002 | 2.10 | 152700 |
02-01 | 14380 | NA | 19544 | 2110 | 304 | 328 | 33924 | 2590 | 4562 | 7152 | 2.11 | 137594 |
01-31 | 11791 | NA | 17988 | 1795 | 259 | 243 | 29779 | 2102 | 5019 | 7121 | 2.20 | 118478 |
01-30 | 9692 | NA | 15238 | 1527 | 213 | 171 | 24930 | 1982 | 4812 | 6794 | 2.20 | 102427 |
01-29 | 7711 | NA | 12167 | 1370 | 170 | 124 | 19878 | 1737 | 4148 | 5885 | 2.20 | 81947 |
01-28 | 5974 | NA | 9239 | 1239 | 132 | 103 | 15213 | 1459 | 3248 | 4707 | 2.21 | 59990 |
01-27 | 4515 | NA | 6973 | 976 | 106 | 60 | 11488 | 1771 | 2077 | 3848 | 2.35 | 44132 |
01-26 | 2744 | NA | 5794 | 461 | 80 | 51 | 8538 | 769 | 3806 | 4575 | 2.92 | 30453 |
01-25 | 1975 | NA | 2684 | 324 | 56 | 49 | 4659 | 688 | 1309 | 1997 | 2.84 | 21556 |
01-24 | 1287 | NA | 1965 | 237 | 41 | 38 | 3252 | 444 | 1118 | 1562 | 3.19 | 13967 |
01-23 | 830 | NA | 1072 | 177 | 25 | 34 | 1902 | 259 | 680 | 939 | 3.01 | 8420 |
01-22 | 571 | NA | 393 | 95 | 17 | 49 | 964 | 131 | 257 | 388 | 2.98 | 4928 |
01-21 | 440 | NA | 37 | 102 | 9 | 28 | 477 | 149 | 26 | 175 | 2.05 | 1394 |
01-20 | 291 | NA | 54 | NA | 6 | 25 | 345 | 77 | 27 | 104 | 2.06 | 922 |
2020-02-14 Epidemic forecast by province
[Area] | [Area_cn] | [Epidemic Mitigation Time] | [2020-03-01 Prdctd daily incrs conf.] | [2020-03-01 Prdctd conf. in total] |
Hubei | 湖北 | 03-04 | 343 | 51164 |
Hong Kong | 香港 | 03-20 | 4 | 31 |
Shanghai | 上海 | 02-13 | 0 | 313 |
Tianjin | 天津 | 02-20 | 0 | 117 |
Chongqing | 重庆 | 02-13 | 0 | 514 |
Shanxi | 山西 | 02-15 | 0 | 126 |
Gansu | 甘肃 | 02-14 | 0 | 89 |
Xinjiang | 新疆 | 02-24 | 0 | 61 |
Henan | 河南 | 02-17 | 0 | 1167 |
Liaoning | 辽宁 | 02-12 | 0 | 115 |
Zhejiang | 浙江 | 02-13 | 0 | 1127 |
Beijing | 北京 | 02-15 | 0 | 367 |
Macau | 澳门 | 01-30 | 0 | 9 |
Guangdong | 广东 | 02-15 | 0 | 1231 |
Anhui | 安徽 | 02-20 | 0 | 927 |
Shandong | 山东 | 02-18 | 0 | 518 |
Sichuan | 四川 | 02-15 | 0 | 436 |
Jilin | 吉林 | 02-20 | 0 | 84 |
Jiangxi | 江西 | 02-18 | 0 | 852 |
Hunan | 湖南 | 02-16 | 0 | 950 |
Jiangsu | 江苏 | 02-18 | 0 | 557 |
Heilongjiang | 黑龙江 | 02-22 | 0 | 389 |
Hebei | 河北 | 02-21 | 0 | 268 |
Guangxi | 广西 | 02-16 | 0 | 222 |
Shaanxi | 陕西 | 02-14 | 0 | 229 |
Yunnan | 云南 | 02-10 | 0 | 149 |
Hainan | 海南 | 02-20 | 0 | 162 |
Guizhou | 贵州 | 02-25 | 0 | 129 |
Neimenggu | 内蒙古 | 02-15 | 0 | 62 |
Fujian | 福建 | 02-12 | 0 | 272 |
Qinghai | 青海 | 02-09 | 0 | 17 |
Ningxia | 宁夏 | 02-18 | 0 | 57 |
Taiwan | 台湾 | 02-11 | 0 | 13 |
Hubei:
Shanghai:
Tianjin:
Chongqing:
Shanxi:
Gansu:
Xinjiang:
Hong Kong:
Henan:
Liaoning:
Zhejiang:
Beijing:
Macau:
Guangdong:
Anhui:
Shandong:
Sichuan:
Jilin:
Jiangxi:
Hunan:
Jiangsu:
Heilongjiang:
Hebei:
Guangxi:
Shaanxi:
Yunnan:
Hainan:
Guizhou:
Neimenggu:
Fujian:
Qinghai:
Ningxia:
Taiwan:
Xizang:
This model prediction is provided by Dr. Yi Zou.