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2020-02-09: Epidemic Mitigation Time Forecast (Covid-19)

2020-02-09

National Epidemic Time Series

Date

Total Conf.

Crnt Conf.

Crnt Susp.

Crnt Sevr.

Total Death.

Total Cured

Total Conf.+Susp.

Incrs Conf.

Incrs Susp.

Incrs Susp.+Conf.

Ratio D/C

Obs.

02-12

59804

52526

13435

8030

1367

5911

73239

15152

2807

17959

2.29

181386

02-11

44653

38800

16067

8204

1113

4740

60720

2015

3342

5357

2.49

185037

02-10

42638

37626

21675

7333

1016

3996

64313

2478

3536

6014

2.38

187728

02-09

40171

35982

23589

6484

908

3281

63760

3062

4008

7070

2.26

187518

02-08

37198

33738

28942

6188

811

2649

66140

2656

3916

6572

2.18

188183

02-07

34546

31774

27657

6101

722

2050

62203

3399

4214

7613

2.09

189660

02-06

31161

28985

26359

4821

636

1540

57520

3143

4833

7976

2.04

186045

02-05

28018

NA

24702

3859

563

1153

52720

3694

5328

9022

2.01

186354

02-04

24324

NA

23260

3219

490

892

47584

3887

3971

7858

2.01

185555

02-03

20438

NA

23214

2788

425

632

43652

3235

5072

8307

2.08

171329

02-02

17205

NA

21558

2296

361

475

38763

2829

5173

8002

2.10

152700

02-01

14380

NA

19544

2110

304

328

33924

2590

4562

7152

2.11

137594

01-31

11791

NA

17988

1795

259

243

29779

2102

5019

7121

2.20

118478

01-30

9692

NA

15238

1527

213

171

24930

1982

4812

6794

2.20

102427

01-29

7711

NA

12167

1370

170

124

19878

1737

4148

5885

2.20

81947

01-28

5974

NA

9239

1239

132

103

15213

1459

3248

4707

2.21

59990

01-27

4515

NA

6973

976

106

60

11488

1771

2077

3848

2.35

44132

01-26

2744

NA

5794

461

80

51

8538

769

3806

4575

2.92

30453

01-25

1975

NA

2684

324

56

49

4659

688

1309

1997

2.84

21556

01-24

1287

NA

1965

237

41

38

3252

444

1118

1562

3.19

13967

01-23

830

NA

1072

177

25

34

1902

259

680

939

3.01

8420

01-22

571

NA

393

95

17

49

964

131

257

388

2.98

4928

01-21

440

NA

37

102

9

28

477

149

26

175

2.05

1394

01-20

291

NA

54

NA

6

25

345

77

27

104

2.06

922

2020-02-09 Epidemic forecast by province

[Area]

[Area_cn]

[Epidemic Mitigation Time]

[2020-02-13 Prdctd daily incrs conf.]

[2020-02-13 Prdctd conf. in total]

Hubei

湖北

02-20

822

29398

Heilongjiang

黑龙江

02-24

19

338

Anhui

安徽

02-18

16

756

Henan

河南

02-17

15

1015

Jiangxi

江西

02-18

13

700

Guangdong

广东

02-15

11

1116

Hunan

湖南

02-14

7

816

Beijing

北京

02-15

7

324

Shandong

山东

02-15

6

413

Hainan

海南

02-19

5

131

Jiangsu

江苏

02-14

5

442

Shanxi

山西

02-15

2

110

Hebei

河北

02-14

2

188

Tianjin

天津

02-17

2

92

Guizhou

贵州

02-18

2

87

Guangxi

广西

02-14

2

180

Neimenggu

内蒙古

02-16

2

56

Jilin

吉林

02-20

2

71

Hong Kong

香港

02-29

2

19

Xinjiang

新疆

02-17

1

42

Sichuan

四川

02-12

0

358

Gansu

甘肃

02-12

0

74

Liaoning

辽宁

02-11

0

104

Chongqing

重庆

02-11

0

438

Zhejiang

浙江

02-12

0

1034

Shaanxi

陕西

02-12

0

198

Ningxia

宁夏

02-13

0

44

Yunnan

云南

02-09

0

137

Fujian

福建

02-10

0

235

Shanghai

上海

02-12

0

287

Taiwan

台湾

02-10

0

13

Macau

澳门

01-30

0

8

Qinghai

青海

02-14

0

15

Hubei:

Shanxi:

Sichuan:

Gansu:

Henan:

Hunan:

Liaoning:

Guangdong:

Shandong:

Hebei:

Chongqing:

Zhejiang:

Hainan:

Jiangsu:

Shaanxi:

Ningxia:

Yunnan:

Heilongjiang:

Tianjin:

Fujian:

Anhui:

Guizhou:

Shanghai:

Taiwan:

Guangxi:

Neimenggu:

Xinjiang:

Beijing:

Jiangxi:

Jilin:

Hong Kong:

Macau:

Qinghai:

Xizang:

This model prediction is provided by Dr. Yi Zou.