Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the country
Our model shows that the national epidemic situation will ease on 02-23 (the number of confirmed cases will not increase significantly). On 2020-02-13 there will be 960 new confirmed cases and in total 39411 confirmed cases.
National Epidemic Time Series
Date | Total Conf. | Crnt Conf. | Crnt Susp. | Crnt Sevr. | Total Death. | Total Cured | Total Conf.+Susp. | Incrs Conf. | Incrs Susp. | Incrs Susp.+Conf. | Ratio D/C | Obs. |
02-12 | 59804 | 52526 | 13435 | 8030 | 1367 | 5911 | 73239 | 15152 | 2807 | 17959 | 2.29 | 181386 |
02-11 | 44653 | 38800 | 16067 | 8204 | 1113 | 4740 | 60720 | 2015 | 3342 | 5357 | 2.49 | 185037 |
02-10 | 42638 | 37626 | 21675 | 7333 | 1016 | 3996 | 64313 | 2478 | 3536 | 6014 | 2.38 | 187728 |
02-09 | 40171 | 35982 | 23589 | 6484 | 908 | 3281 | 63760 | 3062 | 4008 | 7070 | 2.26 | 187518 |
02-08 | 37198 | 33738 | 28942 | 6188 | 811 | 2649 | 66140 | 2656 | 3916 | 6572 | 2.18 | 188183 |
02-07 | 34546 | 31774 | 27657 | 6101 | 722 | 2050 | 62203 | 3399 | 4214 | 7613 | 2.09 | 189660 |
02-06 | 31161 | 28985 | 26359 | 4821 | 636 | 1540 | 57520 | 3143 | 4833 | 7976 | 2.04 | 186045 |
02-05 | 28018 | NA | 24702 | 3859 | 563 | 1153 | 52720 | 3694 | 5328 | 9022 | 2.01 | 186354 |
02-04 | 24324 | NA | 23260 | 3219 | 490 | 892 | 47584 | 3887 | 3971 | 7858 | 2.01 | 185555 |
02-03 | 20438 | NA | 23214 | 2788 | 425 | 632 | 43652 | 3235 | 5072 | 8307 | 2.08 | 171329 |
02-02 | 17205 | NA | 21558 | 2296 | 361 | 475 | 38763 | 2829 | 5173 | 8002 | 2.10 | 152700 |
02-01 | 14380 | NA | 19544 | 2110 | 304 | 328 | 33924 | 2590 | 4562 | 7152 | 2.11 | 137594 |
01-31 | 11791 | NA | 17988 | 1795 | 259 | 243 | 29779 | 2102 | 5019 | 7121 | 2.20 | 118478 |
01-30 | 9692 | NA | 15238 | 1527 | 213 | 171 | 24930 | 1982 | 4812 | 6794 | 2.20 | 102427 |
01-29 | 7711 | NA | 12167 | 1370 | 170 | 124 | 19878 | 1737 | 4148 | 5885 | 2.20 | 81947 |
01-28 | 5974 | NA | 9239 | 1239 | 132 | 103 | 15213 | 1459 | 3248 | 4707 | 2.21 | 59990 |
01-27 | 4515 | NA | 6973 | 976 | 106 | 60 | 11488 | 1771 | 2077 | 3848 | 2.35 | 44132 |
01-26 | 2744 | NA | 5794 | 461 | 80 | 51 | 8538 | 769 | 3806 | 4575 | 2.92 | 30453 |
01-25 | 1975 | NA | 2684 | 324 | 56 | 49 | 4659 | 688 | 1309 | 1997 | 2.84 | 21556 |
01-24 | 1287 | NA | 1965 | 237 | 41 | 38 | 3252 | 444 | 1118 | 1562 | 3.19 | 13967 |
01-23 | 830 | NA | 1072 | 177 | 25 | 34 | 1902 | 259 | 680 | 939 | 3.01 | 8420 |
01-22 | 571 | NA | 393 | 95 | 17 | 49 | 964 | 131 | 257 | 388 | 2.98 | 4928 |
01-21 | 440 | NA | 37 | 102 | 9 | 28 | 477 | 149 | 26 | 175 | 2.05 | 1394 |
01-20 | 291 | NA | 54 | NA | 6 | 25 | 345 | 77 | 27 | 104 | 2.06 | 922 |
2020-02-09 Epidemic forecast by province
[Area] | [Area_cn] | [Epidemic Mitigation Time] | [2020-02-13 Prdctd daily incrs conf.] | [2020-02-13 Prdctd conf. in total] |
Hubei | 湖北 | 02-20 | 822 | 29398 |
Heilongjiang | 黑龙江 | 02-24 | 19 | 338 |
Anhui | 安徽 | 02-18 | 16 | 756 |
Henan | 河南 | 02-17 | 15 | 1015 |
Jiangxi | 江西 | 02-18 | 13 | 700 |
Guangdong | 广东 | 02-15 | 11 | 1116 |
Hunan | 湖南 | 02-14 | 7 | 816 |
Beijing | 北京 | 02-15 | 7 | 324 |
Shandong | 山东 | 02-15 | 6 | 413 |
Hainan | 海南 | 02-19 | 5 | 131 |
Jiangsu | 江苏 | 02-14 | 5 | 442 |
Shanxi | 山西 | 02-15 | 2 | 110 |
Hebei | 河北 | 02-14 | 2 | 188 |
Tianjin | 天津 | 02-17 | 2 | 92 |
Guizhou | 贵州 | 02-18 | 2 | 87 |
Guangxi | 广西 | 02-14 | 2 | 180 |
Neimenggu | 内蒙古 | 02-16 | 2 | 56 |
Jilin | 吉林 | 02-20 | 2 | 71 |
Hong Kong | 香港 | 02-29 | 2 | 19 |
Xinjiang | 新疆 | 02-17 | 1 | 42 |
Sichuan | 四川 | 02-12 | 0 | 358 |
Gansu | 甘肃 | 02-12 | 0 | 74 |
Liaoning | 辽宁 | 02-11 | 0 | 104 |
Chongqing | 重庆 | 02-11 | 0 | 438 |
Zhejiang | 浙江 | 02-12 | 0 | 1034 |
Shaanxi | 陕西 | 02-12 | 0 | 198 |
Ningxia | 宁夏 | 02-13 | 0 | 44 |
Yunnan | 云南 | 02-09 | 0 | 137 |
Fujian | 福建 | 02-10 | 0 | 235 |
Shanghai | 上海 | 02-12 | 0 | 287 |
Taiwan | 台湾 | 02-10 | 0 | 13 |
Macau | 澳门 | 01-30 | 0 | 8 |
Qinghai | 青海 | 02-14 | 0 | 15 |
Hubei:
Shanxi:
Sichuan:
Gansu:
Henan:
Hunan:
Liaoning:
Guangdong:
Shandong:
Hebei:
Chongqing:
Zhejiang:
Hainan:
Jiangsu:
Shaanxi:
Ningxia:
Yunnan:
Heilongjiang:
Tianjin:
Fujian:
Anhui:
Guizhou:
Shanghai:
Taiwan:
Guangxi:
Neimenggu:
Xinjiang:
Beijing:
Jiangxi:
Jilin:
Hong Kong:
Macau:
Qinghai:
Xizang:
This model prediction is provided by Dr. Yi Zou.